Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 2.700930 3.159656 3.668677 4.274849 4.976539 5.762751 6.710021
2025-12-07 1.947903 2.548019 3.286856 4.260950 5.508982 7.051799 9.101271
2025-12-14 1.481587 2.125650 2.989393 4.226954 5.948554 8.251947 11.560094
2025-12-21 1.184460 1.838200 2.780726 4.229094 6.387431 9.471186 14.195027
2025-12-28 1.057212 1.754908 2.824897 4.569871 7.325764 11.486637 18.213600
2026-01-04 0.906147 1.599364 2.723888 4.659234 7.880040 12.989471 21.657657
2026-01-11 0.786685 1.468842 2.633659 4.739001 8.412859 14.506994 25.303358
2026-01-18 0.680902 1.340028 2.520678 4.754070 8.826291 15.865064 28.841578
2026-01-25 0.587700 1.215691 2.392549 4.716239 9.131117 17.061263 32.233582
2026-02-01 0.482729 1.048739 2.157522 4.440546 8.955723 17.374685 34.071671
2026-02-08 0.410482 0.933952 2.003018 4.292447 8.993098 18.067884 36.676061
2026-02-15 0.360509 0.856779 1.910793 4.252697 9.232445 19.162569 40.166167
2026-02-22 0.334115 0.829049 1.921688 4.439108 9.979277 21.382870 46.244971
2026-03-01 0.293679 0.761874 1.837463 4.409613 10.272853 22.738227 50.766324
2026-03-08 0.258276 0.699846 1.754451 4.369477 10.537336 24.067146 55.407608
2026-03-15 0.230337 0.650876 1.693453 4.370010 10.892201 25.632309 60.756387
2026-03-22 0.224909 0.659564 1.773230 4.721057 12.112871 29.260331 71.144255
2026-03-29 0.206435 0.629236 1.750246 4.813050 12.723819 31.576069 78.811611
2026-04-05 0.189552 0.599987 1.725103 4.895272 13.321599 33.932289 86.858618
2026-04-12 0.171808 0.564618 1.677631 4.910793 13.751436 35.937492 94.302925
2026-04-19 0.154122 0.525757 1.613914 4.871759 14.032601 37.610814 101.130912
2026-04-26 0.130464 0.463025 1.471197 4.587332 13.611650 37.463631 103.343414
2026-05-03 0.114022 0.420170 1.379310 4.434532 13.531499 38.183438 107.884630